Effects of river discharge and marine environmental factors on the brown shrimp fishery in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Regression analyses and delta-lognormal models were used to investigate whether river discharge and environmental variables significantly affected relative abundance of brown shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Significant negative relationships were found between mean river flow during winter and spring months and catch rates (CPUE) off Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi/Alabama. However, during the same months significant positive relationships between CPUE and the variation in mean river discharge were found for each state. In Texas and Louisiana, delta-lognormal models revealed depth zone was the most significant variable (P≤0.001) in describing distribution, while time of day (P≤0.001) was most significant in describing CPUE and also distribution and CPUE in Mississippi/Alabama. These results suggest that brown shrimp relative abundance is effected by river discharge, while gulf-wide environmental variables exert no influence, except dissolved oxygen concentrations affecting distribution off Louisiana

Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report; Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/OVERVIEW: For many people, their most perceptible interaction with their environmental footprint is through the waste that they generate. On a daily basis people have numerous opportunities to decide whether to recycle, compost or throwaway. In many cases, such options may not be present or apparent. Even when such options are available, many lack the knowledge of how to correctly dispose of their waste, leading to contamination of valuable recycling or compost streams. Once collected, people give little thought to how their waste is treated. For Boston’s waste, plastic in the disposal stream acts becomes a fossil fuel used to generate electricity. Organics in the waste stream have the potential to be used to generate valuable renewable energy, while metals and electronics can be recycled to offset virgin materials. However, challenges in global recycling markets are burdening municipalities, which are experiencing higher costs to maintain their recycling. The disposal of solid waste and wastewater both account for a large and visible anthropogenic impact on human health and the environment. In terms of climate change, landfilling of solid waste and wastewater treatment generated emissions of 131.5 Mt CO2e in 2016 or about two percent of total United States GHG emissions that year. The combustion of solid waste contributed an additional 11.0 Mt CO2e, over half of which (5.9 Mt CO2e) is attributable to the combustion of plastic [1]. In Massachusetts, the GHG emissions from landfills (0.4 Mt CO2e), waste combustion (1.2 Mt CO2e), and wastewater (0.5 Mt CO2e) accounted for about 2.7 percent of the state’s gross GHG emissions in 2014 [2]. The City of Boston has begun exploring pathways to Zero Waste, a goal that seeks to systematically redesign our waste management system that can simultaneously lead to a drastic reduction in emissions from waste. The easiest way to achieve zero waste is to not generate it in the first place. This can start at the source with the decision whether or not to consume a product. This is the intent behind banning disposable items such as plastic bags that have more sustainable substitutes. When consumption occurs, products must be designed in such a way that their lifecycle impacts and waste footprint are considered. This includes making durable products, limiting the use of packaging or using organic packaging materials, taking back goods at the end of their life, and designing products to ensure compatibility with recycling systems. When reducing waste is unavoidable, efforts to increase recycling and organics diversion becomes essential for achieving zero waste. [TRUNCATED]Published versio

Rescuing Complementarity With Little Drama

The AMPS paradox challenges black hole complementarity by apparently constructing a way for an observer to bring information from the outside of the black hole into its interior if there is no drama at its horizon, making manifest a violation of monogamy of entanglement. We propose a new resolution to the paradox: this violation cannot be explicitly checked by an infalling observer in the finite proper time they have to live after crossing the horizon. Our resolution depends on a weak relaxation of the no-drama condition (we call it "little drama") which is the "complementarity dual" of scrambling of information on the stretched horizon. When translated to the description of the black hole interior, this implies that the fine-grained quantum information of infalling matter is rapidly diffused across the entire interior while classical observables and coarse-grained geometry remain unaffected. Under the assumption that information has diffused throughout the interior, we consider the difficulty of the information-theoretic task that an observer must perform after crossing the event horizon of a Schwarzschild black hole in order to verify a violation of monogamy of entanglement. We find that the time required to complete a necessary subroutine of this task, namely the decoding of Bell pairs from the interior and the late radiation, takes longer than the maximum amount of time that an observer can spend inside the black hole before hitting the singularity. Therefore, an infalling observer cannot observe monogamy violation before encountering the singularity.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures - v2: added references, small tweaks - v3: corrected typos to reflect final published versio

Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report; Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/INTRODUCTION: The adoption of clean energy in Boston’s buildings and transportation systems will produce sweeping changes in the quantity and composition of the city’s demand for fuel and electricity. The demand for electricity is expected to increase by 2050, while the demand for petroleum-based liquid fuels and natural gas within the city is projected to decline significantly. The city must meet future energy demand with clean energy sources in order to meet its carbon mitigation targets. That clean energy must be procured in a way that supports the City’s goals for economic development, social equity, environmental sustainability, and overall quality of life. This chapter examines the strategies to accomplish these goals. Improved energy efficiency, district energy, and in-boundary generation of clean energy (rooftop PV) will reduce net electric power and natural gas demand substantially, but these measures will not eliminate the need for electricity and gas (or its replacement fuel) delivered into Boston. Broadly speaking, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the city must therefore (1) reduce its use of fossil fuels to heat and cool buildings through cost-effective energy efficiency measures and electrification of building thermal services where feasible; and (2) over time, increase the amount of carbon-free electricity delivered to the city. Reducing energy demand though cost effective energy conservation measures will be necessary to reduce the challenges associated with expanding the electricity delivery system and sustainably sourcing renewable fuels.Published versio

Heterogeneity in flood risk valuation and estimation from county to continental scales

Flood risk management in the U.S. has contributed to overdevelopment in at-risk areas, increases in flood losses over time, significant deficits in federal emergency programs, and inequitable outcomes to households and communities. Addressing these issues in a cost-effective and socially equitable manner relies on the ability of policy analysts to identify and understand complex interactions that characterize coupled natural-human systems, and tools for accurate estimates of the risks that arise from these interactions. This dissertation addresses this need by developing and investigating a flood risk analysis system that integrates data on property locations, assessments and transactions, high resolution flood hazard models, and flood risk policy and impacts across the coterminous United States. We focus on the degree to which markets accurately value their exposure to flooding and its impacts, and the accuracy of procedures and tools to estimate flood losses. In the first chapter, we identify heterogeneous valuation of storm risk in the Florida Keys that depends on the presence of structural defense and proximity to damaged homes after Hurricane Irma. This result suggests that stranded assets, properties with increasing vulnerability to storms but unable to rebuild structures and recover wealth, and overvalued assets at risk, which raise disaster costs, can occur simultaneously. This runs counter to the common framing of competing drivers of observed market valuation. In the second, we show that conventional methods employed in flood loss assessments to achieve large spatial scales introduce large aggregation bias by sacrificing spatial resolution in inputs. This investigation adds important context to published risk assessments and highlights opportunities to improve flood loss estimation uncertainty quantification which can support more cost effective and equitable management. In the final chapter, we conduct a nationwide study to contrast the predictive accuracy of predominantly used U.S. agency flood damage prediction models and empirical alternatives using data on 846 K observed flood losses to single-family homes from 446 flood events. We find that U.S. agency models mischaracterize the relationships of losses at the lowest low and high inundation depths, for high-valued structures, and structures with basements. Evaluated alternatives improve mean accuracy on these dimensions. In extrapolation to 72.4 M single-family homes in the U.S., these differences translate into markedly different predictions of U.S.-wide flood damages to single-family homes. The results from this dissertation provide an improved empirical foundation for flood risk management that relies on the valuation and estimation of flood risk from county to continental scales

Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report; Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/OVERVIEW: This technical summary is intended to argument the rest of the Carbon Free Boston technical reports that seek to achieve this goal of deep mitigation. This document provides below: a rationale for carbon neutrality, a high level description of Carbon Free Boston’s analytical approach; a summary of crosssector strategies; a high level analysis of air quality impacts; and, a brief analysis of off-road and street light emissions.Published versio

Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report; Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/OVERVIEW: Boston is known for its historic iconic buildings, from the Paul Revere House in the North End, to City Hall in Government Center, to the Old South Meeting House in Downtown Crossing, to the African Meeting House on Beacon Hill, to 200 Clarendon (the Hancock Tower) in Back Bay, to Abbotsford in Roxbury. In total, there are over 86,000 buildings that comprise more than 647 million square feet of area. Most of these buildings will still be in use in 2050. Floorspace (square footage) is almost evenly split between residential and non-residential uses, but residential buildings account for nearly 80,000 (93 percent) of the 86,000 buildings. Boston’s buildings are used for a diverse range of activities that include homes, offices, hospitals, factories, laboratories, schools, public service, retail, hotels, restaurants, and convention space. Building type strongly influences energy use; for example, restaurants, hospitals, and laboratories have high energy demands compared to other commercial uses. Boston’s building stock is characterized by thousands of turn-of-the-20th century homes and a postWorld War II building boom that expanded both residential buildings and commercial space. Boston is in the midst of another boom in building construction that is transforming neighborhoods across the city. [TRUNCATED]Published versio

Red Snapper Distribution on Natural Habitats and Artificial Structures in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

In 2011, an intensive, multiple-gear, fishery-independent survey was carried out in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to collect comprehensive age and length information on Red Snapper Lutjanus campechanus. Based on this synoptic survey, we produced a spatial map of Red Snapper relative abundance that integrates both gear selectivity effects and ontogenetically varying habitat usage. Our methodology generated a spatial map of Red Snapper at a 10-km2 grid resolution that is consistent with existing knowledge of the species: Red Snapper occurred in relatively high abundances at depths of 50–90 m along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and in smaller, patchy “hot spots” at a variety of depths along the Alabama coast and the west Florida shelf. Red Snapper biomass and fecundity estimates were higher for the northwestern GOM than for the northeastern GOM, as the latter area contained mostly smaller, younger individuals. The existence of similar surveys on petroleum platforms and artificial reefs also enabled us to calculate their relative contribution to Red Snapper distribution compared with that of natural habitats.We estimated that for the youngest ageclasses, catch rates were approximately 20 times higher on artificial structures than on natural reefs. Despite the high catch rates observed on artificial structures, they represent only a small fraction of the total area in the northern GOM; thus, we estimated that they held less than 14%of Red Snapper abundance. Because artificial structures—particularly petroleum platforms—attract mostly the youngest individuals, their contribution was even lower in terms of total population biomass (7.8%) or spawning potential (6.4%). Our estimates of Red Snapper relative abundance, biomass, and spawning potential can be used to design spatial management strategies or as inputs to spatial modeling techniques

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression in locally advanced prostate cancer: secondary analysis of radiation therapy oncology group (RTOG) 8610.

BACKGROUND: Angiogenesis is a key element in solid-tumor growth, invasion, and metastasis. VEGF is among the most potent angiogenic factor thus far detected. The aim of the present study is to explore the potential of VEGF (also known as VEGF-A) as a prognostic and predictive biomarker among men with locally advanced prostate cancer. METHODS: The analysis was performed using patients enrolled on RTOG 8610, a phase III randomized control trial of radiation therapy alone (Arm 1) versus short-term neoadjuvant and concurrent androgen deprivation and radiation therapy (Arm 2) in men with locally advanced prostate carcinoma. Tissue samples were obtained from the RTOG tissue repository. Hematoxylin and eosin slides were reviewed, and paraffin blocks were immunohistochemically stained for VEGF expression and graded by Intensity score (0-3). Cox or Fine and Gray\u27s proportional hazards models were used. RESULTS: Sufficient pathologic material was available from 103 (23%) of the 456 analyzable patients enrolled in the RTOG 8610 study. There were no statistically significant differences in the pre-treatment characteristics between the patient groups with and without VEGF intensity data. Median follow-up for all surviving patients with VEGF intensity data is 12.2 years. Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated no statistically significant correlation between the intensity of VEGF expression and overall survival, distant metastasis, local progression, disease-free survival, or biochemical failure. VEGF expression was also not statistically significantly associated with any of the endpoints when analyzed by treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed no statistically significant prognostic or predictive value of VEGF expression for locally advanced prostate cancer. This analysis is among one of the largest sample bases with long-term follow-up in a well-characterized patient population. There is an urgent need to establish multidisciplinary initiatives for coordinating further research in the area of human prostate cancer biomarkers

Rescuing complementarity with little drama

The AMPS paradox challenges black hole complementarity by apparently constructing a way for an observer to bring information from the outside of the black hole into its interior if there is no drama at its horizon, making manifest a violation of monogamy of entanglement. We propose a new resolution to the paradox: this violation cannot be explicitly checked by an infalling observer in the finite proper time they have to live after crossing the horizon. Our resolution depends on a weak relaxation of the no-drama condition (we call it “little-drama”) which is the “complementarity dual” of scrambling of information on the stretched horizon. When translated to the description of the black hole interior, this implies that the fine-grained quantum information of infalling matter is rapidly diffused across the entire interior while classical observables and coarse-grained geometry remain unaffected. Under the assumption that information has diffused throughout the interior, we consider the difficulty of the information-theoretic task that an observer must perform after crossing the event horizon of a Schwarzschild black hole in order to verify a violation of monogamy of entanglement. We find that the time required to complete a necessary subroutine of this task, namely the decoding of Bell pairs from the interior and the late radiation, takes longer than the maximum amount of time that an observer can spend inside the black hole before hitting the singularity. Therefore, an infalling observer cannot observe monogamy violation before encountering the singularity